Bitcoin

It is going through a bottoming process; yes, prices can still rise during bottoming!

Last major bottoming was done over two years from 2015 to 2016. 

This time the bottoming started in late 2022. Even if the process hasn’t completed yet, there is still a good chance of 140K, before it cools off to 70K or so. 

We see momentum for a run up to the mean.

Energy

This is the sector that we find most secular in terms of a 'run up' in process, after a good bottoming.  

Most stocks have been bottoming since 2019, have put in a solid base, and are making a run up now. Many have already gone past mean; there is momentum.

India small-cap

India small-cap did a solid long bottom from 2013 to 2020. 

Since Mar-2020, this group has been on a tear. We still see upside in there; the topping hasn’t begun yet.

India’s large-cap also did a bottom in March-2020, however not as compelling as the small-caps. As of now, we don’t see the large-caps outperforming the small-caps in this cycle.

US small & mid-cap

They had a long winter; bottoming from Oct-2008 to Mar-2020. This was an extremely pulled-back rubber band.

Thereafter, they did a sharp run-up, putting in the first top around mid-to-late 2021. That topping process doesn’t seem finished yet.   

After a pullback by Oct-2023, US small & mid-cap are on the mend now and would likely make a run for another top. 

Materials

Solid base for many corners of this space – lithium, chemicals, gold, fertilizers. 

Big miners have been bottoming since 2015. 

Though no secular momentum yet, we see opportunities on selective basis.

Financials

Many stocks – particularly mid-caps and emerging market names - have been bottoming since 2022, or even 2020. 

While some have already turned up, many are still around the bottom.

We see opportunities on selective basis.

Real Estate

While some parts of this sector have been bottoming since Mar-2020, some started the process only in 2023. 

Those which started bottoming early, have already turned up, and are breaking through the mean. 

Most haven’t broken out yet though, but have put good bottoms in. We see opportunities on selective basis.

Europe

These have been going through the longest bottoming cycle of the lot - since the end of 2008. 

They have broken above the mean, and if this turn holds, it would be a 14 year long bottoming process that finished in late 2022. 

It is time to start sowing seeds selectively. 

Indonesia

Last big top was from 2007 to 2013; almost 6 years long. 

First leg of a deep bottoming process was done in Mar-2020, and has been bottoming since then, with no major run ups. 

Good chance that the turn up might start in 2025. Looks ripe to start picking in this space.

China large-cap

Despite all the talk against China under the second Trump administration, it could surprise on the upside.

China large-cap has done a bottom from 2022 to 2024. This was long due. This space never really bottomed thoroughly after the 2008 GFC crash, or the 2015 China crash, or even the 2020 Covid crash. 

China small-cap are doing a deep bottom as well, since late 2022. However, their bottom is not as compelling as the large-cap. 

We believe there are selective opportunities in the the large-cap China. 

Japan micro-cap

They did a nice top through 2017 to 2018. 

The bottoming process began in mid-2022, and is still ongoing. 

It has been a solid bottom, and we see opportunities to start picking in this space selectively. 

Watch the shape that data takes.

Play it, firmly. 

Hold it, humbly.